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分析:2013年二季度 猪业将全面回暖

时间:2013-01-20

文章来源:中国三农网  中国是世界上最大的猪肉生产和消费大国, 猪肉是中国人餐桌上必不可少的传统肉食,猪肉年销售额高达上万亿元。2012 年国内猪业在经历了上半年猪价从高位回落至盈亏平衡点以下,下半年又小幅回升得起伏过程。这个过程虽然制造出了一个个空场,但淘汰了落后的产能,加快了猪业的产业化进程。

  展望猪业未来,2013 年将是散户继续退出、规模化进程加快、各行业资本加快进入的一年。我们也相信2013 年在各方面积极因素的推动下,国内猪业将逐渐回暖,二季度中旬,猪业从价格指数、市场需求、行业发展速度等方面都将全面进入上升阶段。 

从经济层面来看

  随着十八大结束后经济、市场供需等方面的维稳红利褪去,投资者们再度开始重新思考未来国民经济和市场的走向。2012 年猪粮比价曾一度跌破均盈亏平衡点,使很多投资者损失惨重,随着年末的到来,各方都会有回收资金的动作,而且随着时间临近将愈加明显。因此大部分投机性质的养殖场、养殖户将于2012 年底前退出市场,其最终结果会使猪价在一个合理的空间内逐渐上扬。

  世界经济仍处在调整期,结构改革不到位和需求增长乏力等问题难以根本改观,金融危机的影响呈现长期化趋势。美国和欧盟经济政策的连续性面临不确定性。两大经济体出台的经济复苏政策短期内对稳定金融市场、降低市场避险情绪、提振需求预期都有积极作用,但由此引发的新一轮为防止本币升值的全球性货币宽松竞赛,对短期资本流动和物价上涨都将产生影响。由于新兴市场回升动力不足,所以随着新一轮货币宽松,大宗商品价格会逐步走高并维持在相对高位。例如对猪业影响较大的粮食价格将很难回落,这就直接影响了饲料成本,也必然导致猪肉价格的上升。

从数据层面来看

  2012 年下半年以来,国内物价总体呈现较为稳定的增长态势。特别是进入7月份以后,物价同比增速在2% 左右,7、8、9 月份,物价水平分别为1.8%、2.05% 和1.9%。通过对消费者物价指数(CPI) 的历史数据分析发现:在物价大幅上涨阶段,食品价格的波动起到了至关重要的作用;而在物价低位运行阶段,食品价格则起到稳定物价的作用。作为食品的主要构成部分,猪肉在物价的波动中无疑扮演着重要角色。

  目前,在居民的消费结构中,食品消费仍是最重要的部分,占居民消费比重的30% 左右。食品价格的波动对物价的变动具有重要的意义。食品中猪肉占比为10% 左右,再加上其价格波动幅度较大,猪肉价格波动对食品价格乃至CPI走势都有很大影响。

  预计2013 年一季度,猪肉价格将环比呈下降态势。但是从同比情况看,由于2012 年一季度猪肉价格开始下跌,2013 年一季度猪肉价格同比降幅不会很大,预计在10%~15%,拉低物价0.3~0.45 个点。2013年二季度,猪肉价格将可能出现反弹,考虑到2012 年二季度,猪肉价格降幅加快,2013年二季度猪肉价格同比将出现上涨态势,这在一定程度上将推动CPI的上涨。

  从政策层面来看

  2013 年是“ 十二五”的重要一年,在这一年《现代农业发展规划》所提出的各项指标以及重要任务都到了落实执行的阶段。

  《规划》提出,改善农业基础设施和装备条件,加速培育一大批设施完备、技术先进、质量安全、环境友好的现代化养殖场。加快实施畜禽良种工程,支持畜禽规模化养殖场(小区)开展标准化改造和建设。

  《规划》还要求,提高农业产业化和规模化经营水平,三农政策推进农业产业化经营跨越式发展。制定扶持农业产业化龙头企业发展的综合性政策,启动实施农业产业化经营跨越发展行动。按照“扶优、扶大、扶强”的原则,选择一批经营水平好、经济效益高、辐射带动能力强的龙头企业予以重点扶持。依托农产品加工、物流等各类农业园区,选建一批农业产业化示范基地,推进龙头企业集群发展。引导龙头企业采取兼并、重组、参股、收购等方式,组建大型企业集团,支持龙头企业跨区域经营,提升产品研发、精深加工技术水平和装备能力。鼓励龙头企业采取参股、合作等方式,与农户建立紧密型利益联结关系。

  十八大报告明确指出要加快发展现代农业,简明的意思就是用科学的方法大规模的进行生产用于出售的农产品。这就要求养殖场加快淘汰落后设备、更新改良品种、提高技术能力。根据发展规划,国家将加大对养殖行业的资金补贴,这将极大地提高养殖户的积极性。无论是从种猪、猪仔的销售,还是动物保健、养猪设备、饲料设备的销售都会呈现一个良好的态势。

  还有其他一些因素不可忽视:国际大宗商品价格仍存在上涨风险,国内输入型通胀压力将增大;2013 年投资可能升温,这样将拉动总需求;劳动力成本进一步上升。预计进入2013 年二季度,国内物价上行压力将逐渐增大,随着猪肉供给降低,供求关系将会使猪价启动新一轮上涨,拉动整个生猪养殖行业的整体回暖。


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